Маврикий ожидает рост доходов от туризма в пределах 8,2% в этом году, как результат увеличения кол-ва возвращающихся европейских туристов после восстановления экономики еврозоны, но аналитики говорят реальный рост в секторе будет поступать из Азии.
Маврикий насчитал 993000 туристов в прошлом году, на 2,9% выше, чем 2012 году, однако заработки в сфере туризм были на самом деле на 8,6% больше (1340 млн долларов США в 2013 году по сравнению с предыдущим годом). Европейцы составил 57% туристов, в то время как азиаты составляли 10% международных туристов, въезжающих в страну.
На туризм приходится 11,3% от ВВП страны. Barclays Capital считает, что индустрия туризма имеет потенциал роста, но прогнозируемое 3,2%-ное увеличение кол-ва приезжих в 2014 году не может быть достаточно для крупного оборота в секторе услуг. В самом деле, только один новый отель на 126 номеров, планируется быть запущенным в этом году.
«Nonetheless, with the increased attention on diversifying its source markets, with a focus on arrivals from Asia, we remain upbeat on the sector’s recovery prospects,» Barclays Ridle Markus noted.
Last year, the number of Indian tourists rose by 3.7% to 57,255, while the number of visitors from China doubled from to 41,913.
JOB CREATION
The World Travel & Tourism Council expects the country’s tourism and travel sector to grow by 4.4% a year over the next decade, with its share of total national investment rising to 6.5% by 2024 from 5.8% in 2014.
«Travel & Tourism is expected to have attracted capital investment of MUR 5.0 billion (USD 160 million) in 2013. This is expected to rise by 1.7% in 2014, and rise by 4.8% per annum over the next ten years to MUR 8.1billlion in 2024,» the WTTC said in its outlook on the country.
Tourism is an important source of employment for the population of 1.3 million people. The sector generated 63,000 jobs last year (around 11% of total employment), and the figure is expected to reach 82,000 within a decade, according to WTTC estimates.
«The total contribution of Travel & Tourism to employment (including wider effects from investment, the supply chain and induced income impacts) was 137,500 jobs in 2013 (23.9% of total employment),» WTTC said. «This is forecast to rise by 3.6% in 2014 to 142,500 jobs (24.3% of employment). By 2024, Travel & Tourism is forecast to support 179,000 jobs (26% of employment), an increase of 2.3% per annum over the period.»
AFRICA’S MOST COMPETITIVE ECONOMY
With annual GDP growth estimated at a steady 4% until the end of the decade, Mauritius is widely seen as a model of stability in the rough-tumble of Africa.
However falling tourism receipts, along with a weaker construction sector and poor sugar production, saw the economy grow a modest 3.1% growth in 2013. Real GDP growth weakened to 3% in the last quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter, as agriculture, mining, construction, accommodation and food services performed poorly. Construction was especially hard hit, shrinking by 19% in the last quarter.
But the Bank of Mauritius expects the economy to pick up steam.
«On the domestic front, notwithstanding the slowdown in growth in 2013Q4, economic activity is projected to pick-up as the recovery in main export markets takes hold,» the central bank said on April 29 after deciding to leave interest rate unchanged at 4.65%.
«The GDP growth forecast has accordingly been maintained within a range of 3.7-4.0% for 2014, up from an estimate of 3.2% for 2013.»
Management consultant KPMG said that a forward-looking approach by policy makers has transformed the economy from a largely agricultural based economy to an international services and financial hub.
«Despite a poor endowment of natural resources and high vulnerability to external shocks — intrinsic to a small open economy — the country has been able to record and sustain strong economic growth while transforming the structure of the economy to support private sector development in various industries,» KPMG noted.
Mauritius recently overtook South Africa as Africa’s most competitive business environment, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2013-14.
The solid fundamentals should help Mauritius at time of relative uncertainty, especially as the European economy may not recover as quickly as hoped.
© Zawya 2014
